Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
